Global geopolitics

(Alex Barnicot)

United States’ strategy to contain China, drawing parallels to its Cold War approach against the Soviet Union, appears increasingly misguided and likely to fail. Unlike the USSR, which was an ideologically rigid, economically stagnant, and politically brittle state, China has built a resilient, adaptive, and globally integrated system that is well-prepared to withstand and counter American pressure. Former Singaporean Ambassador to the UN, Kishore Mahbubani, provides crucial insights into this dynamic, highlighting how the US’s zero-sum approach, aimed at weakening or isolating China, may paradoxically accelerate China’s rise rather than trigger a Soviet-style collapse.

Historically, the US successfully pressured the Soviet Union into an arms race and economic overextension, exploiting the USSR’s centralised, inefficient economy. The Soviet model, driven by heavy industry and military production, lacked consumer innovation and global economic integration. The US, alongside Western allies, restricted Soviet access to technology and global markets, ensuring that the Soviet economy fell further behind. This approach worked largely because the USSR was isolated and over-reliant on resource exports, especially oil, making it vulnerable to price manipulation and economic stagnation.

China, however, is fundamentally different. Since Deng Xiaoping’s reforms in the late 20th century, China has embraced a hybrid model, blending market-driven economics with state-directed industrial strategy. It has become the world’s manufacturing powerhouse, integrated into global supply chains across electronics, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and more. China is the largest trading partner for over 120 countries, including key US allies in Europe and Asia. Any attempt to “decouple” or isolate China economically is far more disruptive to the global economy than Cold War-era sanctions against the Soviet bloc ever were.

Economically, China has also diversified its strengths. It’s not just a manufacturing hub but a leader in advanced industries like artificial intelligence, renewable energy, electric vehicles, and telecommunications, with Huawei’s 5G networks and also microchips being a key flashpoint in the US-China tech war. Furthermore, initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and BRICS have expanded China’s economic influence across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, creating long-term infrastructure partnerships and shifting global trade routes. In contrast, the Soviet Union offered its allies little more than military support and outdated industrial exports, failing to build lasting economic dependencies.

Politically, China has observed the Soviet Union’s mistakes and avoided overextending its military footprint. While the USSR poured resources into maintaining control over Eastern Europe and propping up client states, China has focused on economic leverage and diplomacy. Its military modernization is significant, developing hypersonic missiles, naval and drone technology capabilities, and also cyber warfare expertise, but China prioritises regional influence, particularly in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, rather than global military dominance. This “restraint with preparation” approach denies the US an easy narrative of Chinese imperial overreach akin to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

Mahbubani also underscores a vital point: the US strategy inadvertently strengthens China. Efforts to block Chinese tech companies from global markets have accelerated China’s push for self-sufficiency. Huawei, for instance, responded to US sanctions by developing its own advanced semiconductor technology, reducing reliance on Western suppliers. Similarly, US tariffs on Chinese goods led Beijing to double down on domestic innovation and expand trade ties with countries like Brazil, Russia, and Germany, often at America’s economic expense. The irony is clear: by trying to contain China, the US fosters its self-reliance and accelerates its technological and economic evolution.

Moreover, the global political landscape differs from the Cold War era. Non-Western nations, particularly in the Global South, are less inclined to align with a US-led campaign against China. Many countries see China as a vital economic partner offering infrastructure investment and market access without the political conditions attached to Western aid. The rise of multipolar institutions like the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) further challenges US dominance, providing alternative financial systems that bypass Western-controlled institutions like the IMF and World Bank.

The US’s ideological framing of China as a threat also risks backfiring domestically and internationally. Unlike the Cold War’s ideological clash between capitalism and communism, China doesn’t seek to export its political model. Beijing’s message focuses on economic development and technological progress, making it more palatable to diverse nations, from authoritarian regimes to democracies. The American portrayal of China as an existential menace can alienate allies who prioritize pragmatic engagement over confrontation, weakening the US’s coalition-building efforts.

In summary, the US strategy to contain China through economic decoupling, technological blockades, and military posturing mirrors Cold War tactics but overlooks China’s profound differences from the Soviet Union. China’s diversified economy, global integration, technological innovation, and diplomatic pragmatism position it to resist and even benefit from US pressure. As Mahbubani highlights, the zero-sum mindset of Washington may end up making China stronger and more self-reliant, while the US risks economic blowback, weakened alliances, and global isolation. The historical conditions that led to the Soviet collapse are absent in China’s case, and attempting to force the same outcome may prove to be a costly miscalculation for America.

©GGTvStreams

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Video: Former Singapore Ambassador to UN Kishore Mahbubani – China’s Strategy to Counter USA’s zero sum game to destroy China.

Video: Former Singapore Ambassador to UN Kishore Mahbubani REVEALS China’s Strategy to Counter USA’s zero sum game to destroy China

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZP82pWVkL/