Ola Tunander Warns: Europe Risks Trading Peace for Permanent Conflict
For much of the late 20th century, Europe was a global symbol of what careful diplomacy could achieve. After centuries of devastating wars, culminating in two world wars and the Cold War, European nations reaped what was called the “peace dividend”, the prosperity, stability, and growth that followed from managing geopolitical tensions without war. This peace dividend, as Ola Tunander, Emeritus Professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo, explains in his recent interview with Worlds Apart, was not merely a byproduct of luck. It was the hard-won result of recognizing the catastrophic dangers of escalation, particularly nuclear escalation, and acting with caution, humility, and realism.
Today, Europe seems to have forgotten these lessons. Tunander highlights how the current generation of political leaders and journalists are largely devoid of the Cold War’s lived memory. Having come of age during smaller, asymmetric conflicts where the West held overwhelming military dominance, in Iraq, Libya, and the Balkans, they mistakenly believe they can dictate terms even to major powers like Russia. This arrogance is coupled with a deep ignorance of nuclear strategy and the fragility of great-power peace. Unlike their predecessors, who understood the dangers of escalation and carefully managed diplomacy to avoid it, today’s elites treat security politics with a reckless and dangerous overconfidence.
One of Tunander’s most important points is about the nature of Russian security thinking, which remains rooted not in ideology, but in geography and survival. For Russia, maintaining a buffer zone around its borders is not optional; it is essential. This has been the case for centuries, long before modern leaders like Putin. Yet, despite understanding that Ukraine represented a red line for Russia, a reality even acknowledged in U.S. diplomatic cables, the West chose to ignore it. Instead, a narrative was quickly constructed portraying Russia’s actions as a quest for full territorial conquest, erasing the clear and consistent Russian demand for Ukrainian neutrality.
This creation of false narratives is not accidental. Tunander explains how deception has long been a doctrine of Western strategy, deceiving both adversaries and domestic populations to justify policies that would otherwise be indefensible. From the supposed weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, to false pretexts for intervention in Libya, to the immediate framing of the Ukraine war, the West has repeatedly manipulated facts to manufacture public support for military escalation.
Tunander draws parallels between the destruction of Libya and the potential fate awaiting Ukraine. Libya was destroyed not by Gaddafi’s actions, as later investigations confirmed, there were no mass attacks on civilians by the state, but by Western intervention built on fabricated claims. Libya’s collapse into chaos, mass killings by Islamist factions, and the explosion of refugees into Europe were all predictable consequences, yet Western leaders ignored them. A similar fate now looms over Ukraine: a war that devastates the country, displaces millions, and leaves a permanent scar on Europe’s stability.
Furthermore, Tunander emphasizes the shift in American and European strategic thinking. Washington, at least under the current administration, now acknowledges that direct confrontation with Russia could escalate to nuclear war—a reality clearly stated in U.S. intelligence assessments. Yet Europe, particularly Britain and the Baltic states, continues to behave as if deterrence alone will prevent disaster, refusing to reckon with the new, far more dangerous realities. In truth, NATO’s supposed “nuclear umbrella” is weaker than ever. If a serious escalation occurred, there is no guarantee the United States would engage fully, leaving European countries exposed.
Europe’s strategic blindness is compounded by its economic self-destruction. Germany, once the economic engine of Europe, has been severely weakened by the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines and the loss of cheap Russian energy. Instead of acting independently, as it did during the Cold War through policies like Willy Brandt’s Ostpolitik, Germany now acts as a vassal to Washington, even when doing so wrecks its own economy. Tunander describes the current German position as catastrophic, with a European elite unable or unwilling to recognize the reality that their interests are diverging sharply from those of the United States.
Finally, Tunander warns that the broader consequences of Europe’s actions are already being felt. Just as the wars in Libya and Syria unleashed waves of refugees into Europe, destabilizing societies and increasing crime and social tensions, the war in Ukraine is repeating the same pattern. Yet the political class, and much of the public, remain remarkably unresponsive to these realities. The inability, or refusal, to draw clear lessons from repeated failures is driving Europe towards greater conflict and instability, rather than peace and renewal.
In the end, Europe stands at a perilous crossroads. It can remember the wisdom of the Cold War generations, the hard understanding that peace requires respect for other powers’ interests, strategic realism, and humility, or it can continue down the path of self-delusion, false narratives, and endless escalation. The peace dividend was not a gift; it was earned. And it can be lost.
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Rumble(“play”, {“video”:”v6qgyvp”,”div”:”rumble_v6qgyvp”});</script> Full video of interview: https://rumble.com/v6snv4j-ola-tunander-warns-europe-risks-trading-peace-for-permanent-conflictrt-inte.html
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