The U.S. appears to be caught in a cycle of denial
The events in the past 2 weeks reveals a critical inflection point in global geopolitics and the diminishing power of the United States. It shows the stark contrast between Russian strategic consistency and American diplomatic confusion. For all of Washington’s attempts to control the outcome of the Ukraine conflict, it is Moscow that has set the pace and terms, while U.S. officials grasp at a plan already rejected, exposing the limits of American influence.
The Russian position is now clear and uncompromising. Putin has put forward a framework, known as “Istanbul Plus”, that includes the permanent neutrality of Ukraine, the full recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and the four annexed territories, the protection of Russian speakers, and the suppression of Ukrainian ultranationalist ideology. These terms were made public long ago in June 2024, yet the West continues to operate as if Russia might bend. It hasn’t, and every rumor or Western media leak suggesting concessions has proved false. Russia’s negotiating team is dominated by military officers, reflecting not just the seriousness of Moscow’s stance but the direct involvement of the armed forces in any diplomatic path forward. This is not just Putin’s war, it has the military’s backing. For him to walk back now would risk alienating the army, possibly even triggering internal instability.
In contrast, the U.S. appears to be caught in a cycle of denial. Trump and his envoy Steve Witkoff keep pushing a 22-point peace plan, trying to insert it into negotiations even though Russia has flatly rejected it. Trump’s belief that a personal summit or charm offensive will sway Putin is detached from how Russia functions. Moscow doesn’t negotiate like a real estate boardroom in Manhattan. Russia is treating this like a civilizational conflict, and their terms are not marketing pitches, they are red lines.
Moreover, the idea that Russia is stringing Trump or the U.S. along collapses under scrutiny. Moscow has made its position known repeatedly and publicly. If anything, it is the Americans who keep coming back with the same plan, hoping repetition will wear down Russian resistance. But Russia isn’t blinking. If they were interested in dragging things out, they would feign interest in compromise. They haven’t. They have said no, clearly, consistently, and without nuance.
This rigid Russian posture reflects broader geopolitical realities. Sanctions have failed. Washington can talk about “bone-crushing” measures, but they no longer move the needle. The American public is growing wary of endless military spending, and inflation looms if energy prices rise due to secondary sanctions. U.S. leverage is shrinking because the tools it has, sanctions, diplomacy, military aid, no longer carry the weight they once did. Russia is self-sufficient in key sectors, and China and India have made it clear they won’t comply with Western sanctions. Washington has already maxed out its economic pressure, and any further action risks triggering backlash without changing Russian behavior.
Europe, meanwhile, is frustrated but powerless. It wants tougher U.S. action but can’t act on its own. Trump is openly dismissive of European contributions and views the continent as a burden. He wants out of Europe to focus on Asia, and he sees ending the Ukraine war as a necessary step toward that goal. But he can’t dictate terms that Moscow has already rejected. The reality is Trump is stuck. He can’t force peace on Russia, can’t escalate sanctions without hurting U.S. interests, and can’t withdraw without looking weak. His hope that a direct call to Putin will somehow reset the board is a fantasy.
The Russian military has no interest in stopping until it has secured what it considers victory, possibly even expanding territorial gains beyond the four regions. Soldiers told the New York Times they are tired, yes, but determined. Anything less than total victory would be seen as betrayal, and Putin knows this. That is why the military leads the negotiations and why any agreement will reflect battlefield results, not Western diplomatic formulas.
In simple terms, the U.S. has lost the initiative. It is reacting, not leading. The idea of a mediator role is laughable when the U.S. is pushing its own rejected plan while pretending neutrality. The calls for a 30-day ceasefire are not about peace, they are about buying Ukraine time to regroup. Russia knows this and treats the request with contempt. The American approach, pushing the same ideas in different packaging, isn’t diplomacy, it’s denial.
What is clear now is that the unipolar world is over. The U.S. cannot compel outcomes like it once did. Russia is not backing down, sanctions have diminishing returns, and the rest of the world no longer lines up behind Washington. Trump’s instincts to end the war are not wrong, but his method, relying on persuasion and recycled plans, doesn’t fit the moment. Until Washington accepts the hard limits of its power and deals with Moscow as a peer competitor with its own red lines, it will keep failing. There will be no peace on American terms. There will only be a settlement when reality is recognised and respected.
@GGTvStreams If you think my voice should be heard louder then PLEASE support by becoming a paid subscriber. I have minimal overheads, no sponsors to sell myself or soul to, no bosses who tell me what to write (or NOT write), or staff I have to pay. I’m here for your raw, straight, and dedicated analyses. Your support is appreciated. Thank you.
buymeacoffee.com/ggtv
Leave a comment