Global geopolitics

Major protests in Indonesia have erupted following a rapid escalation of economic discontent into violent clashes with security forces. Hundreds of students and workers marched in Jakarta demanding higher wages, lower taxes, and fairer economic conditions, which then spread to other urban centres. The demonstrations turned deadly when a 21‑year‑old motorcycle taxi driver was killed after being run over by a police vehicle. Witnesses and video evidence confirm that security forces used rubber bullets at close range and engaged in physical beatings. Several vehicles were set on fire in Bandung as protests grew increasingly volatile. The government has responded by suspending seven officers and issuing a formal apology from President Prabowo Subianto, yet the political pressure continues to mount.

The protests are not an isolated domestic matter, as analysts and leaked documents suggest a broader geopolitical backdrop involving United States intelligence activity, particularly through the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a body with a long record of operating as a proxy for covert influence campaigns. In 2023, MintPress published leaked files showing how the NED had cultivated extensive links with Indonesian civil society, political parties, and media organisations, aiming to steer electoral and protest movements. These revelations are consistent with Indonesia’s past history, where Sukarno was overthrown in 1965 in a coup supported by the CIA and MI6, ushering in three decades of military dictatorship under Suharto during which over a million people were killed. The echoes of that period are impossible to ignore given the parallels in strategy.

Indonesia’s current troubles arrive just after Jakarta formally joined BRICS. Membership of the bloc signals a shift towards multipolar economic and diplomatic frameworks outside Western institutions. Indonesia has enjoyed falling poverty rates, with the national statistics agency BPS reporting that 23.85 million Indonesians lived below the poverty line in March 2025, down from 24.06 million six months earlier. The national poverty rate stands at 8.47 percent, and the downward trend has been steady. For many Indonesians, economic growth has been visible, yet frustration remains acute given the widening gulf between political elites and ordinary citizens. The revelation that MPs enjoy a 50 million rupiah monthly housing allowance, ten times Jakarta’s minimum wage, has amplified resentment. This creates fertile ground for external actors to exploit grievances and channel them into anti‑government mobilisation.

The leaked MintPress files describe in detail how the NED and its affiliates such as the International Republican Institute trained Indonesian activists, funded opposition organisations, and promoted electoral challenges. The documents show that embassy staff were directly engaged with labour leaders and encouraged them to use national events such as Independence Day to mobilise protests. Grants as small as one million rupiah were given to local labour party chapters to finance demonstrations, in return for which organisers reported back that milestones had been achieved. Analysts note that these methods replicate the techniques used in Ukraine before the Maidan uprising, where over 20 million dollars were pumped into political groups, NGOs, and media outlets in the year preceding the violent overthrow of President Yanukovych. In Indonesia the sums are lower, under two million annually, but the methods are the same: distribute funds widely, cultivate local leaders, and manufacture pressure points around labour disputes and electoral thresholds.

President Joko Widodo, now departing after his two terms, pursued an independent foreign policy that often ran counter to US interests. He supported Palestinian independence, refused relations with Israel, and delivered humanitarian aid to Muslim states under sanctions. He directly urged peace in Ukraine by travelling to Kyiv and Moscow, and he invited both Putin and Zelensky to the G20 in Jakarta. These actions mirrored Sukarno’s non‑aligned stance during the Cold War, when Indonesia resisted exploitation by either bloc and asserted sovereignty over its vast resource wealth. Sukarno was removed after refusing to bow to Western control, and the leaked documents suggest a similar project is underway to prevent another independent leader from consolidating power after Widodo. Analysts note that Washington viewed Defence Minister Prabowo’s rising popularity with concern, and embassy officials privately lamented Indonesia’s electoral thresholds limiting the number of potential presidential candidates that could be fielded. In response, they sought to cultivate ties across the political spectrum to ensure access regardless of outcome, while maintaining pressure on labour issues to destabilise the government.

Indonesia’s accession to BRICS has further sharpened tensions. Washington views BRICS expansion as a threat to dollar hegemony and to US leverage through institutions such as the IMF and World Bank. Analysts such as Teguh Supriyatno argue that the first step in undermining sovereign states is forcing them into IMF dependency, where loan conditions dictate economic policy. Similar patterns have been seen in Turkey, Lebanon, Malaysia, and Algeria, where currencies have come under simultaneous attack. In Indonesia, the currency has so far remained resilient, but protests over economic grievances can be instrumentalised to shake confidence and trigger capital flight, thereby opening the door to financial conditionalities. The mechanism mirrors strategies deployed in Latin America, where Venezuela has faced relentless financial warfare to weaken state institutions, and in the Middle East, where economic crises have destabilised Lebanon and Syria alongside political interference.

The CIA’s broader playbook remains visible. In Sudan, US and allied pressure has fuelled rivalries and prevented stability from taking hold after the fall of Bashir. In Yemen, external support for factions has prolonged war that otherwise could have resolved. In Iran, sanctions and covert interference aim to undermine the currency and provoke unrest. In Ukraine, support for opposition groups before 2014 created the conditions for regime change and civil conflict. Indonesia now sits within this continuum. Its strategic importance cannot be overstated: it holds vast natural resources, commands critical sea lanes through the Malacca Strait, and with BRICS membership, now positions itself as a pillar of the emerging multipolar order. Washington cannot afford to lose influence over such a state, especially with US military planning increasingly focused on the Asia‑Pacific in anticipation of confrontation with China.

The domestic narrative in Indonesia reflects genuine grievances alongside manipulated agitation. Workers and students legitimately demand fairer wages and lower taxes, but the intensity of protests, the sudden escalation into violence, and the documented funding of demonstrations by external actors all suggest orchestration. Experts argue that colour revolutions rely on amplifying existing frustrations until state institutions falter, creating space for pro‑Western leaders to assume power. The documents cited by MintPress confirm that activists were trained in legal contestation of election results, media messaging, and public mobilisation. The presence of embassy officials at meetings with labour leaders confirms coordination beyond mere observation. Even small grants proved sufficient to sustain activity in a country where half the population earns less than $800 monthly.

Indonesia’s path forward depends on its capacity to maintain sovereignty in the face of this dual pressure: domestic discontent and foreign interference. Analysts warn that failure to insulate economic policy from IMF and US influence risks a repeat of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which hit Indonesia harder than most neighbours and led to Suharto’s resignation. Today’s context is different, with stronger reserves and BRICS membership offering alternatives, yet the vulnerabilities remain. Regional observers also note that India and China, both BRICS members, will watch events closely. China views Indonesia as central to its Belt and Road Initiative and as a vital trading partner, while India sees Indonesia as a strategic counterpart in balancing maritime influence. A destabilised Indonesia would weaken BRICS cohesion and hand the West a significant strategic victory.

Independent commentators stress that the strategy is not about democracy promotion but control of geopolitical alignment. The language in leaked embassy briefings openly discusses safeguarding US interests and maintaining investor enthusiasm rather than protecting Indonesian citizens. The opposition to Widodo’s job creation law, for example, stemmed not from labour conditions but from concerns it would dampen foreign investor enthusiasm. The contradiction is stark: Western missions fund labour protests while simultaneously demanding policies that favour foreign capital. Analysts conclude that the aim is disruption, not reform, to weaken sovereign policy and secure a government more compliant with Washington’s agenda.

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