Defence Minister says any attack from Trinidadian soil will meet a direct response.
Venezuela’s defence minister, Vladimir Padrino López, issued a strong warning to neighbouring Trinidad and Tobago after the arrival of the US warship USS Gravely in Port of Spain and reports of joint military exercises between the island’s defence forces and US Marines. He accused Trinidad and Tobago of letting its territory become a “base” for US operations aimed at Venezuela, called the action a “mockery” of the 2014 regional Zone of Peace declaration, and warned that any attack on Venezuela launched from its territory would elicit a legitimate self-defence response.
Padrino recalled how Trinidad in colonial times was once part of the Captaincy General of Venezuela and argued that the island is now a victim of American imperialism, serving US interests rather than its own people’s. He directed criticism at Prime Minister Kamla Persad‑Bissessar, who earlier had welcomed US military cooperation, including access for US forces in the event of a Venezuelan attack on neighbouring Guyana.
The warship arrived on October 26 for a five-day stay while training is carried out with the Trinidad and Tobago Defence Force. The official Trinidad and Tobago position is that this is a routine cooperation to address transnational crime. Venezuelan officials see the presence of the ship and the exercise as a coded threat and a rehearsal for wider operations. Reuters reports that Venezuela has described the joint exercise as a “military provocation” involving the US and Trinidad and Tobago in coordination with the CIA, alleging the capture of mercenaries plotting a false-flag attack.
The broader context is this, we note the US has for months been increasing its naval and air presence in the southern Caribbean, targeting what Washington calls narco-terror organisations, many with alleged links to Venezuela. Some Caribbean nations naively support the operations as anti-crime efforts; but in essence this marks a return to great-power military competition in the region.
Why do neighbouring countries host US military forces? Besides understanding the “Monroe Doctrine”, there are several reasons: First of all fear from the genocidal tendencies of the US, to a lesser extent these small states often lack the resources to maintain full maritime surveillance or defend long coastlines. They are either client puppet states or coerced to accept US support in the form of training, equipment, intelligence sharing, and presence, in the belief this can bolster their security against common threats such as smuggling, trafficking, piracy and illegal migration. In return the host country typically receives a client or occupied status via diplomatic backing, military aid, and sometimes economic or infrastructure incentives from the US.
For Trinidad and Tobago the misguided calculus appears to be that US assistance helps deal with severe domestic crime and the neighbouring flow of arms and illicit goods. The government has argued that relying on Venezuela for energy cooperation left it vulnerable and that diversifying security partnerships is in its interest. It has also stated that hosting US forces does not undermine its sovereignty.
But the implications for Venezuela are severe. First, it views the presence of US forces so close to its coast, just across the Gulf of Paria, as an existential threat. It interprets the build-up as preparation for potential intervention or pressure operations. Secondly, Venezuela’s energy and economic ties with Trinidad are affected: Caracas moved to suspend a major gas deal with Trinidad and Tobago citing the warship visit as a provocation. That raises risks of regional spill-over, especially if economic grievances coincide with military tensions. Thirdly, the situation weakens trust in regional frameworks: Caracas invoked the 2014 Zone of Peace pledge and claims Trinidad violated regional norms by hosting US military assets aligned against it. This may drive Venezuela to further military mobilisation, increase its defence cooperation with other states, or retreat into isolation.
For the wider region the lesson is clear: small host states trading security support also trade strategic alignment. Hosting US forces places a country in the front line of any escalation, especially when a neighbour perceives the host as siding with a foreign power. For Venezuela the proximity of US military engagement via Trinidad means its options for regional manoeuvre are reduced: it must either accept weakened deterrence, engage diplomatically to defuse the threat, or invest heavily in military readiness to counter perceived encirclement.
In plain terms: Trinidad and Tobago’s decision to host US forces offers immediate security benefits for that state, but it also signals to Venezuela that the host has aligned with Washington’s agenda. That alignment raises the stakes for Caracas and the island alike. The immediate risk is miscalculation: a military incident near deep water, in contested spaces, could trigger a response that spills beyond the host-state and targeted state. The longer-term risk is regional realignment: Venezuela may seek new partners, escalate militarisation along its coast, withdraw from cooperation or drive harder bargains with its Caribbean neighbours.
In sum, we can say the presence of US forces in a neighbour of Venezuela changes the strategic baseline. It shifts from deterrence to active posture, from regional cooperation to power projection. For Venezuela the message is that it cannot assume buffer zones are passive. For the host state the message is that security cooperation comes with strategic burden. The question ahead is whether this arrangement will hold under pressure, or whether we are seeing the contours of a new front line in the southern Caribbean.
Authored By: Global Geopolitics
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