Escalation dynamics
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The Gloves Are Off
Russia’s Strategic Shift from Negotiation to Military Victory in Ukrain The trajectory of the war in Ukraine has entered a new phase, defined less by the ebb and flow of frontline manoeuvres than by a fundamental strategic reassessment in Moscow. For months, Russian officials had invoked the “spirit of Anchorage”, a term referencing the August… Continue reading
AI and Digital Control, America, Energy, EUROPE, Financial markets, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Global Finance, imperialism, iran, israel, NATO, neocolonialism, politics, Russia, warAnchorage agreements, attrition warfare, Bulgaria sanctions, conflict analysis, deindustrialization, donbas, Drone Warfare, energy infrastructure targeting, Escalation dynamics, EU summit 2026, European Union, geopolitical assessment, historical memory, hypersonic missiles, international diplomacy, Kherson, Kinzhal, lavrov, military escalation, military victory, military-industrial capacity, Poland-Ukraine relations, putin, rubio, Russia Ukraine War, Russian offensive, Russian Security Council, Russian strategy shift, strategic reassessment, total war, Trump, Ukraine war analysis, Volhynia massacre, war termination, WWII collaboration, Zaporizhzhia -
How Russia Wins the New World War
Sharpening nuclear deterrence and revising doctrine as necessary conditions to defeat Kiev and constrain the West The post-Cold War order has failed, and Russia’s survival now depends on forcing a strategic reversal of Western escalation through nuclear-backed coercive deterrence rather than conventional victory. The collapse of the Soviet Union removed geopolitical constraints without eliminating nuclear… Continue reading
AI and Digital Control, America, economics, Energy, EUROPE, Financial markets, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, iran, israel, middle east, Mineral Resources, NATO, politics, reserve currency, Russia, satellites, South East Asia, warairport strike, conflict attribution, Drone Warfare, Escalation dynamics, Ethiopia involvement claims, evidence vs claims, foreign interference, Horn of Africa security, information warfare, international response, Khartoum allegations, military accusations, propaganda framing, proxy conflict risks, Red Sea security, regional geopolitics, strategic messaging, Sudan conflict, UAE involvement claims, war narrative -
Gate of Tears, Strait of No Return
How simultaneous chokepoint warfare has trapped global trade between two narrowing exits, a strategic game the West cannot easily exit The Houthi declaration of entry into the war alters the structure of the conflict in a measurable way that can be tested against known data on maritime flows, energy dependency, escalation theory, and capital market… Continue reading
AI and Digital Control, America, economics, Energy, EUROPE, Financial markets, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, iran, israel, middle east, NATO, politics, Russia, warasymmetric warfare, bab el mandeb, chokepoint warfare, economic warfare., energy crisis, energy infrastructure attacks, Escalation dynamics, Financial markets, Game Theory, Geopolitics, global inflation, global trade disruption, houthis, Iran strategy, maritime security, Middle East conflict, multipolar world order, oil markets, oil price volatility, petrodollar system, proxy warfare, red sea crisis, regime resilience, shipping routes, sovereign debt risk, Strait of Hormuz, strategic endurance, supply chains, Ukraine-Russia war, Yemen war -
Iran’s Hold on Hormuz Forces US Into High-Risk Military Options
Amphibious forces position for interdiction and potential seizure of Iran’s primary oil terminal as Washington seeks leverage over oil flows and China-bound exports The deployment of United States Marine Expeditionary Units into the Persian Gulf reflects a defined operational logic grounded in maritime control rather than territorial conquest. The force structure, doctrinal design, and historical… Continue reading
AI and Digital Control, America, China, economics, Energy, EUROPE, Financial markets, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Global Finance, iran, israel, middle east, Mineral Resources, NATO, politics, Russia, waramphibious operations, Bab el Mandeb Strait, China energy security, chokepoints, economic coercion, energy geopolitics, Escalation dynamics, global oil supply, Kharg Island, Marine Expeditionary Units, maritime interdiction, naval strategy, naval supremacy, Persian Gulf security, Strait of Hormuz, US military strategy -
Iran as an Underdog has Proven Effective and now Holds Significant Leverage
The consequences of underestimation and misreading capability by the United States and Israel has resulted in measurable strategic cost The available evidence indicates that the scale and resilience of Iranian state capacity under sustained attack have been materially underestimated in much Western policy analysis, despite repeated cautions issued over several years by academic specialists in… Continue reading
AI and Digital Control, America, China, economics, Energy, EUROPE, Financial markets, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Global Finance, iran, israel, NATO, politics, warasymmetric warfare, conflict analysis, cost imposition strategy, decentralised defence, deterrence, Drone Warfare, Escalation dynamics, geopolitical leverage, Gulf security, hybrid warfare, iran, israel, Middle East geopolitics, military doctrine, military miscalculation, missile warfare, regional power balance, state resilience, Strait of Hormuz, strategic resilience, strategic studies, underdog, United States, war of attrition -
Shock Doctrine Decapitation or Deterrence
Washington’s pursuit of rapid decapitation confronts Tehran’s doctrine of attritional survival March 1, 2026 marked the second day of renewed United States military operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran, described by observers as either a new war of aggression or the continuation of hostilities initiated during the previous year. Early operational reporting indicated that… Continue reading
AI and Digital Control, Financial markets, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Global Finance, Health, israel, Latin America, middle east, NATO, politics, Russia, warairpower strategy, asymmetric warfare, attrition warfare, ballistic missiles, Clausewitz, decapitation strategy, Drone Warfare, Escalation dynamics, iran, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Middle East security, military doctrine, mosaic defence doctrine, political economy of war, regime change, sanctions resilience, strategic endurance, Sun Tzu, United States, war of aggression -
The Iran Deal That Was Deliberately Broken
How Abandoning the JCPOA Removed Containment To Make Way For Confrontation For several years, Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that Iran must “make a deal,” but his most recent demand has been framed with unusual urgency. He has publicly declared that Iran has until today to comply, warning of severe consequences if it does not.… Continue reading
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The Persistence of an Unwinnable War
U.S.–Israeli Strategy Has Strengthened the Adversary It Sought to Break and Why Another War Is Likely to Reproduce Past Failures The current phase of confrontation unfolds amid an unprecedented concentration of military and naval forces across the Middle East, creating conditions widely recognised by defence analysts as consistent with imminent large scale conflict. Naval strike… Continue reading
