middle east
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Trump’s Narrative Collides With Negotiation Reality
Behind the Scenes of Trump’s Claim That “Iran Accepted the Terms” As the United States retreated from its attempt to add new provisions to the draft agreement, Donald Trump simultaneously escalated his threats on social media and launched a campaign to portray Iran as having surrendered under military pressure. According to sources familiar with the… Continue reading
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The War That Remade Iran: Strategic Gains from the 2026 Conflict
How a Battered Islamic Republic Emerged with New Power, New Leadership, and a Changed Middle East The central premise of the February 2026 American and Israeli military campaign against Iran was straightforward: sustained aerial bombardment combined with targeted killings of the Islamic Republic’s senior leadership would either fracture the state or produce conditions amenable to… Continue reading
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Reading Between the Lines: Why Rezaee’s CNN Interview Is More About Messaging Than Negotiation
Tehran does not expect negotiations to produce a breakthrough, it wants to shape the narrative around any future escalation My reading of Rezaee’s CNN interview is that it is primarily directed at Western audiences and the cameras, not because Tehran genuinely expects negotiations to produce a breakthrough, but because it wants to shape the narrative… Continue reading
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The Fractured Crescent
Power, Rivalry and Realignment in the Emerging Middle Eastern Order The Middle East enters another period of strategic transition as assumptions underpinning the regional order during the post-Cold War era face growing pressure from shifting power balances, changing economic realities, military confrontation, and the gradual erosion of uncontested American dominance. Public discussion frequently presents the… Continue reading
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The Calm Before the Storm: Is Washington Preparing for War With Iran Again?
Washington says it wants diplomacy, but the demands being placed on Tehran look more like surrender terms than the foundation for lasting peace. The United States says it still wants diplomacy with Iran. Officials continue talking about negotiations, peace, and “de-escalation.” But behind the language of diplomacy, the reality looks very different. The conditions Washington… Continue reading
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1953 Coup: The Original Sin of US-Iran Relations
The 1953 Anglo-American overthrow of Mohammad Mosaddegh destroyed a democratic nationalist government, and laid the foundations for the anti-Western resistance doctrine drives Tehran’s politics today The modern confrontation between Iran and the United States did not begin with the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the embassy hostage crisis, or the rise of the Islamic Republic under Ayatollah… Continue reading
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A Division of Labour in WarA Division of Labour in War
The Transfer of Strategic Burden from Washington to Europe in the Ukraine Conflict The Ukraine conflict has entered a phase in which military attrition matters less than institutional transfer. Washington no longer behaves as a state attempting to terminate a costly war through settlement. It behaves as a system reallocating operational responsibility to subordinate allies… Continue reading
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Diplomacy on Paper, War in Practice
London hosts talks on Hormuz while enabling the very conflict it claims to stand apart from The decision by the United Kingdom to convene a gathering of 35 countries to “explore” reopening the Strait of Hormuz carries the appearance of urgency and coordination, yet it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that it is largely… Continue reading
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The Unlawful War Now Threatens The World
Energy on the Brink as the Middle East Escalation Triggers Global Fallout Global energy markets have entered a state of heightened volatility following Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field, prompting retaliatory action that has sent ripple effects across the region and the world. South Pars, shared with Qatar where it is known as… Continue reading
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Gulf States Caught in the Crossfire
How decades of reliance on Washington expose the Gulf to economic and military vulnerabilities Resentment is quietly mounting across the capitals of the Gulf Cooperation Council, as a convergence of strategic, economic, and political pressures forces a reassessment of long-standing alliances with Washington. Reports emerging from Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha suggest that these states… Continue reading
